It is six years since my last visit to China and I look forward to be amazed by it. While much of this is officially “vacation”, I will spend time meeting people to do some groundwork and gauge the business environment. If you have suggestions on things to do and people to see, particularly in the Internet business, drop me a note.

In the meantime, here is some interesting reading on the subject of agriculture, supporting my argument on the IEB that India should not demand cuts in subsidies in the US:

• Agricultural Subsidies versus Market Access: A world bank report arguing, based on econometric analysis, that market access and import tariffs are vastly more important than agricultural subsidies for transfering benefits to poor country producers. By its calculation, up to 93% of the support to rich world agricultural producers comes not from subsidies but from import tariffs. Reason enough not to ask for cuts in US subsidies.
• Biofuelling the Food Crises: A biofuel boom presents ostensibly environmentally-friendly implications, yet leads some analysts to predict a food crisis for the world’s most vulnerable populations.
• Global Agriculture: How much liberalisation is needed? (pdf) A summary report on the current negotiating positions of major countries in the current round of trade negotiations, on issues surrounding subsidies, market access, and non-trade concerns.

In so many ways, as Piya puts it, there is indeed no place like home. We’ve all heard the success story of economic growth and unbounded professional opportunity. That story is very much true, and its scale only visible after one arrives in India, but that is only part of the story.

Contrasting Lifestyles: Comfort vs. Chaos

Living in Switzerland, even in the US, is comfortable. I can get used to getting up at 7am, walking to work at 8am (stopping for a coffee on the way), eating at noon, walking out at 7pm (not my case unfortunately) to a bar in old town, staying for a few drinks as friends join, and walking back home at 11pm. I can plan, to the minute, the time it will take me from any place in Geneva to any place in Zurich, because I can set my clock to the trains. Going to a public office to get things done can be a headache, but if I know the process, I know the outcome.

I can forget all that when I land in India. Process and rules are only synonyms for the ‘guideline’. The outcome is what is important, and achieving it dependent only on how badly one wants it. The Indians have a word for it – jugaad. It makes us special. Frustrating as the chaos can be, managing it only requires understanding that there is a method to the madness, and to learn to be a little mad oneself.

A Twinge of Loss

On a personal level, as Piya seems to be discovering, that chaos reminds everyday of how things have changed - the value of money is no longer the same, fashions and practices of Nani’s days are dying; and how they have not – bribes still get the work done, Indian English is still quirky, and things may or may not work.

Yet, I cannot but feel a twinge of sadness for a way of life fast disappearing under the trample of short-term growth. Delhi, in so many ways epitomizes this problem. The Supreme Court just announced a ban on outdoor food stalls, so Piya may not enjoy some of the food she so loves. Earlier, the Delhi Government in all its wisdom banned cycle rickshaws from Chandni Chowk in Old Delhi. Delhi is set to become very boring.

Beyond the nostalgia, it is also set to become more unlivable. Worse, such decisions are frustrating because they come when Europe has managed to retain its old-world charm, and sprawling cities in the US are promoting pedestrianization and cycles. India, in trying to catch up with the west, is still catching up with the west of yesteryear. And nobody seems to know better.

Why Returning is So Difficult

That, in fact, is the biggest problem I faced in India. Of developments that are mediocre, and people that accept mediocrity, or even ignore that it exists. Let me explain with my pet peeve – Delhi’s transport infrastructure.

Several years ago, the Delhi government announced a series of flyovers and highways around Delhi. They were heralded as state-of-the-art, and today most are ready. Simultaneously came the Delhi Metro, a modern marvel that is transforming commuting practicies in Delhi. Yet, if you have ever been to any modern city, what strikes you is not how good these developments are, but how good they could have been. Flyovers have no space for pedestrians or bus stops, the larger ones have an amazing array of lane changes and merges with no space for them, and are bad design more generally. Similarly, the metro while amazing inside, is an eyesore outside. These heavy concrete constructions are in stark contrast to the sleek constructions one sees in South East Asia and Europe (I learnt Indian construction contracts are paid by weight, which explains why we want heavy flyovers).

If all this is a problem, even more difficult to reconcile is that most Delhiites – and Indians – see it as the epitomy of transport infrastructure. They compare to Bangalore and say it is so much better. I could not understand why they compare to what is worse, rather than what is better, till very recently.

It is the same jugaad, and our meagre expectations of what is offered in public that constrains our expectations. When Delhiites say public infrastructure is excellent, even if it is not, it is not their aspirations talking, but their experience.

It is all too easy to overlook these problems. Returning NRIs in particular, can easily roam in their air conditioned cars, driving from door to door. In that world, of private enterprise where salaries are easily Rs. 100,000 a month, India is getting much better, because the hotels, resorts, and houses have become bigger and better. But in another world, of the average middle class Indian, of teachers paid Rs. 15,000 a month (these numbers are based on personal experience for someone with my experience), and NGO or government employees receiving Rs. 30,000, India illustrates the tradeoff between growth and lifestyle. The improvements for one segment are coming – at least so far - mostly at the cost of the second (perhaps best illustrated by the soaring inflation, driven largely by upper middle class consumption).

Then Why Return?

So, if returning is frauth with such ethical and emotional challenges, why return? Because avoiding that challenge is to be a sissy? Worse, because it is those very challenges that remind one of being alive. Skiing is fun, but its not in the big scheme of things that important. Giving a city its first metro network is; creating a major conglomerate from nothing is; creating policy on energy efficiency for a country of over 1 billion is (the chief of the BEE left the private sector because, and I quote from a meeting, “this is the chance of a lifetime”).

In finance, one holds that big risks come with big returns. India is fraught with risks, including the possibility of not being able to live there. But it has incredible opportunity too. Professionally to make money and make a name. Personally, to feel alive.

Returning was , for me always a question of when, not if. In those three months, I met numerous returned NRIs, several expats, and many NRIs contemplating return. To the last I can only say that this is India’s time. No matter what you want to achieve, you can achieve it in India. Born and bred in the ‘management school of scarcity’, most things are possible, including the attempt to reshape societial priorities (my own preference). So go ahead, follow Piya’s travails and wish her luck. For her story may well be yours.

Goldman Sachs is bullish on India: Various papers (IHT, HT) are reporting a new Goldman Sachs report that predicts India will be the 2nd largest economy in the world by 2050, surpassing the US in size. This latest report marks an upgrade for India, from Goldman Sachs. According to IHT:

India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars.

Goldman now expects the Indian economy to grow at 8 percent a year through 2020, higher than the 5.7 percent rate it predicted in 2003 (original report here).

It is not all good news. The growth will create competition for resources and severe environmental damage. It will also result in an estimated 700 million migrants into urban centers.

The Harvard International Review has a special feature on India, with three articles (the APAC section has more, worth reading):

• Going Forward: A review of future prospects
• India Needs its NGOs: A piece on civil society
• Regenerating Lands and Livelihoods: on sustainable resource management

Going Forward, by Nirvikar Singh is peppered with western influenced economic ideals such as a preference for free trade, which is somehow expected to promote employment. Still, it understands well India’s challenges and its fairly unique context:

Among developing nations, the combination of a large population, a democratic government, and a strongly multi-religious and multi-ethnic demographic makes India somewhat unique.

The plan to create growth first and then equity later may work in the Chinese political system, but it will not be successful in India’s democracy. India needs a more inclusive model of development.

Milton Friedman did some work on India, in 1955 and after. As reported by Sepia Mutiny (part I and part II), Friedman was both appreciate of India’s potential, and frustrated for its waste. In 2000, he said:

I continue to be impressed by India’s enormous potential and depressed by the contrast between that potential and the minimal progress that has been achieved in the forty-five years since I was first in India. The latest decade shows more signs of change. India may finally be on the way to realizing its potential. If so, it will be a blessing for the people of India and for the world as a whole.

In July 2006, he said of India and China in an interview:

Yes. Note the contrast. China has maintained political and human collectivism while gradually freeing the economic market. This has so far been very successful but is heading for a clash, since economic freedom and political collectivism are not compatible. India maintained political democracy while running a collectivist economy. It is now unwinding the latter, which will strengthen freedom of all kinds, so in that respect it is in a better position than China.

Translation:
Foreigners, don’t leave us alone with the Swiss!

What’s all the fuss about? A recent referendum here that tightened Switzerland’s immigration laws, making them among the harshest in Europe according to the UNHCR. Odd then than a country that prides itself as a beacon of freedom, the home of the Red Cross and the United Nations in Europe, and the repository state of the Geneva Conventions, finds itself being criticized by the UNHCR.

Yet, its not the first time Switzerland is taking a step back. Two years ago, just as I was arriving here, the country had voted down legislation granting citizenship to foreigners. But its not just Switzerland, but Europe in general that is completely clueless on how to manage the migration that comes with globalization.

So, while the US is building its Mexican wall and tightening implementation of immigration law, Europe has long been wanting to throw out the invading hordes. There is a lot of talk of ‘integration’, but head scarfs and veils are still what seem to matter, not things such as income, education levels, and opportunity equality. Small wonder then, that I cannot imagine something akin to this event, embrace the immigrant, pointed to by Genevieve happening here. Switzerland is for the Swiss.

Of course, Switzerland has another reason to welcome foreigners. The anonymous appeal on a random wall was prompted not by ethics, but by what Mr. Quayle noted in a letter to the Financial Times this summer:

Sir, Catherine D. Henry offers a compelling argument extolling the attractiveness of Zurich set against the repulsiveness of London.

Alas, she overlooks one essential fact. Zurich is a quaint, dull, smug, homogenous village. London, by contrast, is the giant, cosmopolitan, entrepreneurial, anarchic, multinational capital of Europe and the Continent’s only global city. However, it is true, as she notes, that the water-skiing is poor.

Or, as Ms. de Luca stated, after moving from London to Lugano, “Everything works here like a dream, really. But you pay for that by being surrounded by pathetically boring people and no culture.”

Ethics or diversity, either way you look at it, foreigners seem to be good for this country.

…and bounced back.

After effects? A certificate of insanity, a headache, eyes ready to pop out, a few million fewer grey cells, and bragging rights to a hell of a memory.

If you cannot see the video above, you can
download the entire file and watch it on your computer.

On ne voyage pas pour se garnir d’exotisme et d’anecdotes comme un sapin de Nöel, mais pour que la route vous plume, vous rince, vous essore, vous rende comme ces serviettes…

A few weeks ago I met a guy at a bar. Such a meeting of strangers, brought together through a series of acquantiances, is common to Geneva. As we talked of where we had been, he noted, ‘how such a life can get addictive.’

He brought forth a point that has been on my mind too, lately. To what purpose this travel?

I left India to work and study. Well, after 5 years outside my country I have done both. Why then am I not contemplating a swift return? I must be honest to myself. I find it hard to be ready to ’settle down’. And there lies the contradiction between what we started, and what we have become.

Richard Feynman, a member of the Manhattan Project and Nobel prize winning physicst, recalled in his writings how he started making the bomb for a good reason. But long after the reason was gone and Germany had been defeated, he and others continued working, and did not stop to think of what they were doing.

So, now my original reason for traveling is gone. I need a new one. If not, as Nicolas Bouvier would say:

“Un voyage se passe de motifs. Il ne tarde pas à prouver qu’il se suffit lui-même. On croit qu’on va faire un voyage, mais bientôt c’est le voyage qui vous fait ou vous défait.”

I don’t really know the purpose, but the day is marked by parades by, what used to be medevial guilds. The grand finale, however, is the burning of a dummy stuffed with fireworks. The time it takes for the dummy’s head to blow off determines the length of summer. Yesterday it took 11 minutes. It will be a good summer.

By evening the streets were littered and dirty, packed with locals going nowhere in particular. It was chaos! For the first time I did not feel guilty throwing a plastic plate to the ground (though the same cannot be said of the ticket I dropped inside the tram).

Chaos, but not quite. Those coming from southern countries will know what I mean. Sure the streets were packed, but I could still make it from Paradeplatz to Bellevue in the predicted time – trams were still on time. Yes, the streets were dirty, but even as the parade ended, a massive crew was picking up tables, sweeping the streets, and washing the horseshit. Today morning, not a trace of anything! Chaos, but organized chaos. This is still Switzerland.

Enjoy.

Then there are the gems outside the city. An hour away, the city of Kutna Hora and its many churches. Of particular note is Kostnice, with its hundreds of skeletons. A good day trip from Prague, it has plenty of streets to walk around and many a relaxed cafe to stop at.

Up north, there was Adrspach and its stone massifs. Visited as much by the locals as by German and Polish tourists, another good way to spend a day.

There is plenty here to keep me occupied for a while. If nothing else, watching the Czech is fun. They come in all shapes, sizes, and hair colors. And they like to have fun. Late at night, many are habitually drunk yet so docile. And go into any bar and you’ll find several punching the jackpot machine mindlessly. People watching is fun here. Its clear this city was once the melting pot of travellers from east and west. Today, it is a melting pot of tourists, attracting not just Old Europe, but hordes of Russians and Poles. If there was any doubt, the bookshop in the center proved my point. It sold books not only in Czech and English, but also Russian, Polish, German and Italian.

Back to another melting pot – Geneva. Spring is in the air and it will be a different city when I return. Yet, not different enough it will still be a safe haven from another, very real world out there.

I was in Prague earlier this week, but the greyness of Geneva followed me there. That, combined with the hordes of tourists, made for a disappointing visit. Somehow the magic of this ‘magical’ city eluded me.

The Czech Republic I see is not the touristy one. Hosted by a friend who likes to avoid the mainstream places, I did walk old town. But I spend time also in the ‘rock town’ of Adrspach, 1hr by train from Trutnov. This is an amazing place – a park of towering stone massifs and gorges where one can easily spend a day wondering at natures creative ability. Or just biking around Trutnov, in the hills and valleys that mark the North.

I am also brimming with observations of the Czech Republic. The people – so heterogenous – this must have once been a melting pot. The famed ‘Czech beauty’ I haven’t found but people look different. Up here, few speak English and I’m enjoying the struggle to communicate. And yet, people are so apologetic sometimes for not speaking English, while it should really be me that apologizes. At least I’ve learnt to greet and thank in Czech. Oh, and beer – such sweet nectar. These people love their beer, and drink it in pints all the time. No mention of this country can be complete without mention of their great beers. Kronenbourg will now be insipid.

Later today I take the bus back to Prague and spend another 1-2 days there. Perhaps the weather will be favorable, and I’ll indulge my touristy side a bit more.