Politics

The Situation in Kenya (Part 1): What Went Wrong?

As some of you may know, Kenya is up in flames. The violence following a suspect election that saw Mwai Kibaki return as President has led AFP and Reuters, among others, to suggest Kenya is on the brink of civil war.

The situation is indeed bad, as this is a struggle of tribes. Yet, no news agency has explained just what went wrong with the elections – and why it is so evident that the results were indeed rigged. So I asked my friends. What follows has been sent to me by Anne-Marie Dilullo, a long-time resident of Kenya and founder of the Tabasamu Education Fund.

I will continue to provide updates, as long as I receive them and they remain pertinent. AMD, as she is best known, traveled from Turkana, in the far North West, to Nairobi on the 29th, witnessing substantial signs of violence. Her chronicles will follow – and if you have updates of your own, please send them in too.

Update 1: What Went Wrong?

(Disclaimer: AMD – like international observers – clearly believes the election results were flawed).

National elections were scheduled for 27th December, and campaigning had been fierce for over one year now. Kenyans vote thrice: for their local counsellor, for their consituency Member of Parliament and for the President of the country. Elections were predicted to be peaceful and well run by the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). Kenya has been peaceful for a long time, and had their last elections in 2002. They are an example of progress and peace in the region and the continent.

The 3 parties putting forward candidates for President were the Party of National Unity (PNU) – Mwai Kibaki (president for the last 5 years); the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) – Raila Odinga; and ODM-Kenya – Kalonzo Musyoka (broke away from ODM shortly before nominations, to form his own party).

The real contest was between ODM and PNU. It is said that the two parties are somewhat tribally divided, ODM being more the choice of Luo, Luhya, pastoralist tribes such as Masai, Somali, Turkana, Kalenjin, Samburu, and PNU being more the choice of Kikuyu, Meru, Kamba, etc. The allegiance lines are not clear, but the assumption is generally true.

The election process was generally uncontroversial.

On the 28th, results had still not been fully tallied, but reports were slowly coming in to the ECK and news rooms, and were being tentatively broadcasted by constituency. The ODM was in the lead. Most key MPs that had, in the past 5 years, been Kibaki supporters were not re-elected, and were replaced by ODM MPs.

On the 29th, almost all results were in, save for 19 constituencies, mainly in PNU supported areas. ECK officials were saying they could not reach their officers in these constituencies. This is when the people started worrying about rigging. As results slowly came in, Raila’s (ODM’s) lead in the Presidential standing started declining, and Kibaki’s (PNU’s) stand was looking better. Slowly but surely, Kibaki was gaining ground with the 19 consituencies’ late results. Protests were made by the Press and various party agents on changing of numbers, tallying irregularities, etc. It was not looking transparent or fair at all.

Why would the people vote out most PNU MPs, and then vote in a PNU President? How could some constituencies have more votes tallied than voter turnout for those stations? How could there be fewer votes in the MP boxes than in the Presidential boxes for one station?

News Update:

• The Kenyan Attorney General has called for a recount.
• A massive “million man rally” by the ODM in downtown Nairobi was postponed to Tuesday, after riot police disrupted attempts to hold it yesterday.

© 2008 The Discomfort Zone.