Politics

A Eulogy for the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, a Praise for Manmohan

By Dweep Chanana ⋅ October 23, 2007 ⋅  Email this post ⋅ Post a comment

Time Magazine just released what can only be described as a eulogy for the much hyped Indo-US nuclear deal. Most western media outlets have concluded that the deal is now as good as dead. And that may well be. When Manmohan Singh said earlier this month that putting the deal on hold “would not be the end of life”, it was in stark contrast to his words a few months ago calling the Left’s bluff on pulling support away.

In retrospect, however, what should be surprising is not that the deal faltered so close to becoming reality, but that it made it this far at all. Through its two and a half year history the deal has been opposed by virtually everyone. In the US by democrats, republicans and anti-proliferation lobbyists. In India by the left and the scientific establishment. And globally by China, Pakistan, and Japan to varying degrees of opposition. Through those years of negotiation the only two constants were the will of President George Bush and the desire of a part of India’s bureaucracy to seal a once-in-a-lifetime realignment. Small wonder, then, that it failed.

So what?

Time, for one, thinks this is the end of the road for Manmohan’s government:

The world’s largest democracy may, in fact, be left with a teetering, impotent government, whose prime minister has suffered a massive international embarrassment…”By backing down after raising the bar so high,” the Times of India editorial warned, “the government has signalled, in effect, that it is weak and open to blackmail on any issue by any pressure group in parliament. With one-and-a-half years remaining for polls, and the Left demonstrating it holds the whip hand in government, hopes for economic reform are dim.”

Less than two months ago when Singh’s Leftist partners began clamoring for the deal to be scuppered, the beleaguered Prime Minister argued that “there is today talk the world over of a nuclear renaissance and we cannot afford to miss the bus.” This week, though, there’s a clear sense that the bus has come and gone, and with it, perhaps any confidence in Singh’s ability to transform India.

That analysis, however, is too pessimistic. From an international perspective the deal’s breakdown does little damage to our standing.

As I have stated previously, the benefit of this deal was not providing India access to nuclear power. It was, instead, to signal a realignment by India towards the US, while also indicating India’s ability to fashion international institutions to its own benefit. Both of these objectives have already been fulfilled - the first by India’s close cooperation in a number of other areas, including defense; and the second merely by India succeeding in having the US accept the Hyde Act and the 123 Agreement. While elements of all these agreements may have restricted India somehow, the mere process of negotiation both brought the US and India closer, and indicated India’s ability to shape international governance. Indeed, one may even argue now that the failure of the deal provides us these benefits without the one bit drawback of the deal - making Indian foreign policy more succeptible to US pressure.

The real reason to shelve the deal, however, is domestic. Manmohan Singh is right to point out that his is not a “one issue” government. Indeed, much more needs to be accomplished to reform India’s economy, including liberalization of labor law, primary education, infrastructure, and the public sector. In most of these, the process of reform stands in direct opposition to the Left’s positions. As Singh is all too aware, elections are fought and won not on foreign policy, but on domestic issues. Given that reality, he is astute both to avoid the cost of early election, and hope to use his meager political capital to fight for more worthy causes.

By caving in to the Left’s demands, Singh may have signaled that he will always do so. Or, one hopes that he has caved in now, only to take a stronger stand later. Time will tell if that faith is misplaced but in theory at least Singh has survived, and will hopefully fight the Left another day - for an even more worthy battle.

Tags: indo-us nuclear deal, nonproliferation